Printed papers on the political situation and military policy in Egypt [‎21v] (42/176)

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perhaps have faith that these men, though they should be elected on a Zaghlulist
ticket, will afterwards give evidence of that disposition. They are, as usual, waiting
for the tide. It is unfortunate for this party that some of their leaders are personally
most distasteful to King Fuad, and that others are suspected by him of Khedivist
sympathies. It remains true that this party is distinguished by the possession of a
number of able men, some of whom also are both vigorous and ambitious.
6 The Zaghlulists also have lost ground, chiefly through public apathy to politics and
through internal dissensions ; they are active, but seem to rely more and more upon
political adventurers, youthful enthusiasts and professional agitators. There is discord
between Fathullah Pasha An Ottoman title used after the names of certain provincial governors, high-ranking officials and military commanders. Barakat and Hamad Pasha An Ottoman title used after the names of certain provincial governors, high-ranking officials and military commanders. -el-Basil, between the Moslem and
Coptic members of the Wafd, and between rival candidates for the same constituency.
But their position has improved since Zaghlul Pasha An Ottoman title used after the names of certain provincial governors, high-ranking officials and military commanders. announced his return, and his
arrival will certainly reanimate the party. Whether even he will be able to heal their
dissensions for any length of time is doubtful. The ostensible foreign policy of the
party remains extremist, and is characterised by violent opposition to the declaration of
the 28th February, 1922, to the Act of Indemnity and to the arrangement regarding
British officials. I understand t hat a section of the partv has leanings to republicanism.
7. Saad Pasha An Ottoman title used after the names of certain provincial governors, high-ranking officials and military commanders. himself is believed to be in a fairly moderate state of mind, due to a
desire to maintain relations with the Palace, and to enter into early negotiations with
His Majesty’s Government. If this is his state of mind, he will find difficulty in
persisting in it against the probable influence of the more extreme leaders of the party
here. Internal dissensions are likely to result, if moderation prevails, in desertions to
the Watanist party ; if extremism prevails, in isolated desertions to the Adlist party
and in a temporary convergence of the Zaghlulists and Watanists. The latter result
could hardly be agreeable to Zaghlul, in view of his bad relations with the ex-Khedive.
It is very commonly believed that ZaghluPs prestige will rapidly decline after a few
months ; but that is a matter about which I will not speculate.
8. The Watanist party is still small, but it appears to be appreciably gaining in
strength. This party at the same time endeavours to appeal to Zaghlulists on lines of
extremism, and invites us to a private view of a more moderate attitude. I understand
that there are differences between the new president of the party, Hafez Bey Ramadan
(an agreeable man of mild and urbane manners), and the Alexandrian leader, Said Bey
Telemat, who is believed to enjoy the special confidence of Abbas Hilmi Pasha An Ottoman title used after the names of certain provincial governors, high-ranking officials and military commanders. . The
party is very anxious at present for the return to Egypt of Sheikh Abdul Aziz Shawish,
who, if he returns, is to edit a newspaper for them. I may here remark that
Khedivism is gaining ground more rapidly than is the party which is specifically
associated with it.
9. This survey of the political forces in Egypt would be incomplete without some
further allusion to Prince Omar Toussoun. He continues to be moved in a mysterious
way by his manipulator, Mohammed Pasha An Ottoman title used after the names of certain provincial governors, high-ranking officials and military commanders. Said, conspicuous at social functions,
increasing his personal influence to the utmost possible extent, and entering into contact
with one party or another as his ambitions, or their finances, may from time to time
require. The average Egyptian opinion about him is that he is grasping and of
limited intelligence, but a dignified figure, a good Oriental, and in many ways the best
living member of the family of Mohammed Ali.
10. The matter of immediate interest is the policy of the returning leader, and, in
particular, the relations which are established between him and his Sovereign are likely
to have an important influence on the further trend of politics in this country. King
Fuad followed a course of conduct lasc year which now makes it hazardous for him
(since he desires to be popular, and to crush the Khedivist movement) to alienate
Zaghlul. But if he encourages Zaghlul too much, Zaghlul is liable to become
excessively powerful, to hold the King at his mercy, and perhaps to embroil him with
His Majesty’s Government. It is not improbable that the King overestimates the
danger from the ex-Khedive and underestimates the danger from Zaghlul. The latter
is a double danger. On the one hand is the danger of internal disorder, since the
encouragement ot Zaghlul may well be an encouragement of the elements of instability ;
and here I may observe that the recent tightening of the Penal Code was chiefly
inspired by the King, and not, I presume, without regard to this danger, which His
Majesty’s treatment of Zaghlul might evoke, but which the Ministry must bear the
burden of suppressing. On the other hand is the directly political danger. The King
thinks that he can at the same time flatter Zaghlul and moderate his policy; but this
depends upon a possibly erroneous view of ZaghluPs character, and the result of too
much friendliness may well be that Zaghlul will find himself capable of undermining