Papers written by Curzon on the Near and Middle East [‎16v] (32/348)

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even contemplated. In Syria a more critical condition existed, owing to the difficulty
of reconciling the aspirations of the French with the hard facts of the Arab situation
and the insistence of the French on the letter of the unfortunate Sykes- not
Agreement. In Palestine the interests of the Arab population and the Zionist
immigrants appeared to be capable of reconciliation, and everything pointed to an
eaily mandate for Great Britain with the consent of both. Egypt was still quiet.
If the above survey be accepted as correct, it would seem that the first task to >e
undertaken in Paris would have been :—
1. A reconciliation by mutual agreement of the Franco- Anglo-Arab dispute re Syria.
2. An early decision of, at any rate, the main outline of the future limits of the
Turkish Empire in Europe and Asia.
3. The speedy assumption by the Powers concerned of their duties and
responsibilities in the areas assigned to them in the new settlement.
Nearly four months have elapsed, and the situation, as depicted in the
accompanying summary, is as follows :—
The fate of Turkey-in-Europe is not yet decided, though it is understood that the
Turks are to lose Constantinople, which is to be handed over to the mandate of America
or some International Power. Meanwhile, the city is the scene of acute, though petty,
conflicts of jurisdiction and policy between the French and British representatives.
The Turks have recovered from the first dismay of defeat, and are intriguing with all
their old spirit and skill. 1 he Committee of Union and Progress are active in the
provinces, and are the only vigorous force in Turkish politics. r lhe decision as to
Constantinople has been so long postponed that what might have been easy in January,
may be found very difficult in May or June, l ime is being given for Moslem sentiment
throughout the world to consolidate and concentrate on a supreme effort for the rescue
of Islam. In any case, events in Egypt, the Caucasus, Asia Minor, and India are not
likely to render the Turks more amenable or subservient ; and it is more than likely
that the decision as to their expulsion from Europe will be followed by rebellions and
massacres in Asia Minor, and by great commotions throughout the eastern Moslem
world.
Given the expulsion of the Turk from Europe, the policy that seemed to be the
most promising in Asia was that, deprived of the border provinces that bad been
wrested from him in the war, i.e., Mesopotamia, Arabia, Syria, Palestine, Cilicia, and
also Armenia (which he h;id shown his complete inability to govern), he should be set
up in the Asiatic residue of his former dominions under whatever conditions, military,
financial, or otherwdse, the Great Powers might think fit to impose.
In practice, it is understood that the Greek claim to Smyrna, and possibly to the
Aidin vilavet, is likely to be conceded, although believed to be violently opposed by
the Americans. This, it is reported, is due, not to any urgent political or military
necessity, but to the superior diplomatic ability of M. V^enizelos. The Italians have
already anticipated, and indeed precipitated, the ultimate decision by a military descent
upon Adalia (on a manifestly fabricated pretext) and the neighbouring coasts, and by
sending troops to Konia. They have also, with a rashness to which it is difficult to find
a parallel, accepted the mandate for the Caucasus and the Caspian, from which the
British forces are in process of being withdrawn. It is believed that the whole of the
former Ottoman dominions in Asia are to be made the subject of a mandate or mandates.
One dav we are told that the mandate is to be given to America, who, if she emerges
from her traditional isolation, wall consent to do so only on a large and dramatic s^ale.
Another day it is to be given to France, to console her if she fails to obtain Cilicia.
Meanwhile Italv, the most fantastic of all the aspirants, is establishing a chain of claims
across the peninsula from Adalia in the south to the Caspian and the Caucasus in the
north-east.
The fate of Armenia is still not decided, and there is a good chance that, when it is,
the difficulty will be, not, to define Armenia, but to find the Armenians.
The dispute about Syria has not been composed ; and, in their inability to find a
solution, the Peace Conference have fallen back upon the expedient of a Commission,
which, so far from confining itself to the Syrian question, has, with perfect logic but
deplorable imprudence, been instructed to examine and report upon the entire Middle
Eastern situation.
Meanwhile, the exaggerated demands of the Zionists in Palestine have produced a
new situation of unrest there.
Egypt has risen in revolt, and General Allenby’s first solution has only led to a
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