File 53/1915 Part IV 'German War: Turkey; Caliphate etc' [‎239r] (474/481)

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[ had interview with Fan's Nirur; he believes that the Armenian
massacres will be repeated in Lebanon if Turks recce upy the country in
strong force, he states that lists of notables both Moslem and Christian have
been prepared and that the I urks will take the opportunity to destroy the
heads ot the Arab party and then proceed to set the ignorant Moslems on
the Christians.
1 had an interview with the Sultan; he is anxious about the future
situation in Syria and its subsequent effect on Arabia as a whole.
Personally, with memory of my journey fresh in my mind, 1 feel
exceedingly anxious as to effect of a passive canal defensive on whole near
Eastern and Arabian situation.
It appears to me its moral effect will be cumulative. If Turks reoccupy
Syria, I anticipate that they will capture the Arabs, destroy the Christians,
and establish themselves permanently in the Holy places with a puppet
Shciil. Even if the} do not attack canal, a menace will suflice to produce
unrest in Egypt. They will further be able to oblige us, without any
tioubh to themselves, to maintain an additional force in Mesopotamia, where
wastage from sickness increases with the size of the army. Under these
circumstances an otherwise desirable peace might be dangerous to us.
ddius, if Germany made liberal offers in France, Belgium, Servia, Italy
and Bussia, she might be in a position to keep Ottoman Empire in Asia
intact owing to a general hunger for peace among the masses of allies. In
this event our position in the East becomes precarious. We could not
retain Mesopotamia, except with a large army and we should be obliged
either to evacuate it as a result of peace, or hold it at the subsequent mercy
of the Turks. The Baghdad Hailway would be completed under German
auspices. The permanent garrison of Egypt would have to be larger than
heretofore. The influence of the Turks on Indian Pilgrims would be a
permanent factor in Indian Mohammedan politics. In the eyes of all
Mohammedans we should have been beaten by .the Turks if not by the
Germans.
For Great Britain to have to face such a situation in the condition of
exhaustion and reaction succeeding on tin; war would, to my mind, be most
dangerous to our future in the East. I suggest that possibly French may
not appreciate our position owing to fact that their hold on North Africa is
that of out-and-out conquerors backed by policy of colonisation and
denationalisation of conquered, whereas we control purely by prestige and
geographical position.