File 53/1915 Part IV 'German War: Turkey; Caliphate etc' [‎238v] (473/481)

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y>) As regards our position in Irak, our established civil government
must hold lor the duration of the war and we should stipulate for this
Bagdad and Basra provinces are divided from Vrabia by schism and are too
disorderly and rancorous for a new-born state to govern. W hen time for
evacuation comes, Sherif’s government will have to face the Shiah and
Iverbela question, and l anticipate will be glad enough to get us to run the
administration for them for some time to come in order to get revemie
Arab nationalism has little influence and Khaliphate none, south of Bagdad
in cultivated area.
(4) 1 submit for strategic and political consideration of India that
Arab state cannot become a formidable power in itself so long as
it is protected from German and Turkish influence bv France and
ourselves.
(o) 1 anticipate in event of our giving the Arabs their opportunity that
matters will shape themselves as follows The influx of trade ’ ami money
owing to the opening of the Syrian ports will keep things quiet in Syria and
Pale stme, and government will be carried on on Turkish formula with local
personnel. Bagdad and Basra provinces will continue to accept our
provisional rule without demur. The Government of Mosul and Frfa will
1 be disorderly, and Arab state will probably have to ask for our assistance
the Arabs of northern Arabia Proper will light indecisively amoim
themselves. . * ^
fb) In event of our letting this opportunity go, the Arabs in Syria and
north Mesopotamia will, I believe, delinitely fall in with the Turks 'in order
to get best terms for nationalist aspirations from those whom they would
then regard as certain winners.
ATlCl/l l\ » \ IVt"'
a S KJ, L*
v rui i/.ivi.u., irom
iollowin 0nt,n ' lati0n ° f 19 a " d -°’ 1 for Foreign Ollice consideration
In event ot Turks re-occupying Syria in permanent overwhelming force
and consequent Arab reversion to Turks. I anticipate that Germans and’
Gommitt.ee of Union and Progress will produce effective massacres of
1 hnstians on Armenian scale, with following objects
p.) To compromise Aral, Moslems for good and all, and set up permanent
burner between Arabs and hope of reconciliation with Entente.
httoZ 1 Empire. Centre ° f ' inco,ltrollable ■ntelleetualism from
(c) To eradicate all French holding ground.
1 suggest Clerk, Weakly, and Fitzmaurice be asked if this is not in
consonance with German Committee policy, and whether Syrian Moslems
oouhl not be stirred up to this once country is completely dominated
1 submit, that this eventuality would he fatal to French prospects in
work irreparably 'ilndl a "' 1 ^ ^ economic
miglt bemimio^ed tfThem 5 * * 8 ’ ^ OVerl ° 0ked by French (i ever„ment, and
AhduTamU’s 0 time tUat n ° W 3re C °" Iplete ; not «ductio.is as in
Hope reach London Sth November.
(5) 30th November. From Sir Mark Sykes to D.M.O., War Office. No. 22 -
1 have had interview with Baird. Secretarv of Stnte fm- Wo •
interested in his opinion. He expressed beliefT a t AT f i r "'! ght be
tranquil at preseut that the presence of a arge cuem tmv i^ Pt * S q "T
provoke considerable excitement and unrest. 1 ' Syria woul,i
1 had interview with Shaykh Mohidin Kurdi of the A/har • l„. ;..f
that the pro-English members of University are osinAT ’A T ^
the pro-Turkish party is gaining ground 8 confidence and that