Scrapbook of newspaper cuttings about Afghanistan [‎77v] (158/312)

THE KEY TO RUSSIA'S POLICY.
The most significant piece of intelligence which has lately reached
England, taken in connection with the Afghan difficulty, has passed
almost unnoticed by the daily papers, which assume to instruct the
public on Eastern affairs generally. Considering the confused utter
ances of these oracles on the subject which is now mainly absorbing
popular interest, it is, perhaps, not to be wondered at that a rumour
of disturbances in Seistan conveyed no very definite meaning to the
average journalistic mind. At the same time, coinciding as the event
does with the refusal of Shere Ali to receive our mission, it is one of
the highest importance, and may furnish the key to the policy on which
Russia relies practically to defeat the Treaty of Berlin. It should
never be forgotten that the European and Asiatic questions became
indissolubly connected when we brought Indian troops into the
Mediterranean, and that the Treaty of Berlin contains so many provi
sions which it is humanly impossible can ever be fulfilled, that Russia
has only to keep England absorbed in Asia to do what she likes in
Europe. Is there any European Power but England which would go
to war with Russia to compel her to comply with the engagements she
has entered into in regard to Turkey ? Russia's object in Central Asia
is not to go to war with England, but to disintegrate Afghanistan,
and, by furnishing munitions of war and volunteer officers and
men to the enemies of Shere Ali, to destroy the Afghan Power,
and substitute for it her own puppets, while advancing her frontier
from the Oxus and Taschkend. The instruments whom she intends
to use for this purpose are the Shah of Persia and Abdurrahman
Khan, a near relation and bitter enemy of the Ameer. In urging
Shere Ali to refuse the British mission, she is urging him on to his
own destruction. Whatever else may happen in Afghanistan, one
thing is certain—the present Ameer's fate is sealed. The disturbances
in Seistan mean a revival of the old frontier dispute between Persia
and Afghanistan, which an English mission went to settle a few years
ago, but, as is usual in arbitration matters, neither party was satisfied.
In other w 7 ords, Persia is urged by Russia to take advantage of the
Ameer's difficulty with England to attack him covertly on his western
frontier.
The acquisition by Persia of Seistan means the annexation of the
important fortress of Furrur, and practically of Herat, which then
becomes isolated from the rest of Afghanistan. Simultaneously with
this move on the part of Persia, Russia will advance on Merv, which
brings her frontier almost to the gates of Herat. At the same time
she will probably install Abdurrahman Khan, now an exile in Samar-
cand, as ruler of Balkh, the north-eastern province of Afghanistan, .
where he is very popular, thus virtually approaching her frontier to
Peshawar. In the mean time it is to be supposed that British troops
will have occupied Candahar and Girishk, as those positions flank any
advance from Persia, and may possibly find it necessary to declare war
against Persia, in which case an expedition to the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. will
be necessary.
Russia calculates, and with reason, that by inciting Abdurrahman
to advance from the north on Cabul, where he has many partisans, he
will produce a revolution in Afghanistan, which the Ameer, attacked
on all sides, will be in no position to put down. It w 7 ill then be too
late for him to accede to the British demands; for he will be powerless
to execute them, and England will find herself engaged with Persia
on the west, and the forces of the new pretender to the Afghan
throne on the north, both strongly backed by Russia. The present
which Russia made to Persia after the late war of the fortress of
Khotour with an adjacent slip of territoiy, the marked manner in
which the Shah avoided visiting England on the occasion of his last trip
to Europe and journey to St. Petersburg, taken in connection with oppor
tune disturbance in Seistan, indicate clearly the relations which subsist
between the Czar and the Shah. Meantime Russia has pushed forward
to Kizil-Awat, a point beyond her legitimate frontier, in order the better
to support the movements above indicated ; and the British Govern
ment has a right to demand an explanation of this advance, and to
require her to withdraw from so menacing a position. Whether ulti
mately we shall be compelled to force Russia into taking an openly
hostile attitude, or may prefer meeting her with her own weapons ami
rouse the Central Asian Khanates against her, furnishing them with
trained Mahometan volunteer soldiers from our Indian armies, and
with the military assistance and munitions of war necessary to enable
them to revolt successfully against the Russian occupying force, is a
question which the course of events can alone decide. In the mean
time it is folly to shut our eyes to the fact that we are on the verge of
hostilities which will lead to the gravest complications in Asia, and
enable Russia to evade all her obligations under the Treaty of Berlin in
Europe.
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