‘WAR DIARY. ARMY HEADQUARTERS, INDIA. […] I.E.F. “D”. Volume 17. PART I. (From 1st to 15th December 1915.)’ [‎192v] (389/488)

General ^Nixon, with his headquarters, has.moved downstream from Kut-
al-Amarah, taking with him a gunboat and nine ships which were there,. so
as to hasten the despatch from Basrah of the reinforcements as they arrive
there
2. In the action of the 1st December the Turks were estimated at 12,COO
strong. It is probable that the total
29574 - Turkish strength in Baghdad and south
of that place now amounts to 24,000 men. In addition, some 12,000 men
(2 divisions) ere reported as en route ixovci Bitlis and may now he beginning to
reach Baghdad. Another division, the 17 th, reported as moving south from
Hassan Kaleh, may also be intended for Mesopotamia.
3. All has been quiet in Arabistan and at Bushire during the week.
4. The situation in Persia does not appear so far to have changed for the
worse. This is probably due to the
29228 ‘ presence of Bussian troops within an
appreciable distance of Tehran. The Bussian detachment, which is to move
on Hamadan, is reported to comprise 7,000 cavalry, 4,000 infantry and 3 guns,
5 . The 28th Brigade has begun- to arrive at Basrah, and on the 2nd
December the 51st Sikhs left Basrah for Kut-al-Amarah. There is, however,
considerable delay in starting troops off from Marseilles and also from ii/gypt,
and it is unlikely that the arrival of the whole of the Lahore and Meerut
Divisions can now be completed at Basrah before the middle of January.
6 General Nixon has estimated that by the middle of December the
Turkish concentration at Baghdad might amount to 27,500 men with 55 guns,
and by the end of February to 50,000 with 84 guns. Our latest information
indicates the possibility of 36,000 men being concentrated at Baghdad by about
the 7th January. It is therefore quite possible that by the middle of January,
General Townshend at Kut-al-Amarah will be holding his position there
against some 36,000 of the enemy.
It is possible that a portion of this total might be diverted towards Persia
with a view to causing that country to declare against us. This cannot be
relied on, however, as a heavy British defeat at Kut-al-Amarah will probably
have at least as good effect on Persia.
General Townshend’s present strength probably does not exceed 10,000
fighting men in all with 38 guns. If "his line of communications remains
uninterrupted, he might be gradually reinforced from Basrah. But the pro
bability is that very shortly the Turks, with their superior numbers, will be
able to hem in General Townshend and block his line of communications below
Kut-al-Amarah. In this case, the concentration of the British reinforcements
will have to take place at some spot below Kut-al-Amarah, and the first opera
tion before General Nixon will be the relief of General Townshend s force
General Nixon has stated (Dy. No. 29646) that his main concentration will
be made at Amarah.
General Townshend has 6 weeks’ supplies at Kut and. plenty of ammuni
tion. He may therefore be able to hold out until the middle of January, or
longer on reduced rations. As previously stated, the enemy opposed to him
may, by the middle of January, amount to 36,000 men with at least 5o guns.
The number of guns may well be considerably greater The total ol
comprises the 39 guns now thought to be with the Turks plus 16 coming wit
the 5 th and 36th Divisions en route for Bitlis. If, say, 12 guns each have
arrived at Baghdad with the 51st, 52nd and 26th Divisions the total
might be 91. Allowing 15,100 Turks to hold General Townshend, there,
mav still be 21,000 available to oppose our relieving force about tbe iutn
January. By the 10 th January, possibly we may be able to concentrate at
Amarah—•
28th Brigade . . - •
34th Brigade
35th Brigade ..••••
107th Pioneers . •
4 th and 12 th Cavalry ...
B. F. A. Brigade (Territorials)
B. F. A. Brigade (Meerut Division)
8 battalions from Egypt . . . .
Say, 6 battalions from France
Total 21,250 men and 30 guns.
3,000 men
3,000
3,000 „
750 „
1,000 „
12 guns
IB „
6,000 men
4,500 men