Annotated Copy of Persia and the Persian Question by George Curzon, with Inserted Papers [‎771r] (1558/1814)

April, 1911 .]
13
EGYPT.
Province of Dakahlieh : 97 Moslems, ^Eqoo ; 350 Copts,
^£ 1 , 330 .
Province of Charkieh: 123 Moslems, ££1,076; 233
Copts, £E 1,220.
Province of Galioubieh: 50 Moslems, ££587; 117 Copts,
££652.
Province of Ghizeh: 72 Moslems and 182 Copts.
Province of Fayoum : 68 Moslems, ££ 587 ; 168 Copts,
££879'
Province of Beni-Souef: 63 Moslems, ££540; 146 Copts,
££ 771 .
Province of Minieh: 98 Moslems, ££926; 242 Copts,
££1,150.
Province of Assiout: 82 Moslems, £920; 395 Copts,
££1,870. .
Province of Ghirgeh : 38 Moslems, ££470; 309 Coptb,
££1,530.
Province of Keneh: 60 Mdslems, £E 66 o; 264 Copts,
££1,400.
Province of Assouan: 42 Moslems, ££ 43 ° ? 102 Copts,
£E550-
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN
EGYPT.
The reports from Egypt on the economic situation are
couched in highly optimistic terms. It would seem as if
the country were really at last passing out of the crisis
into which it was thrown in 1907. The process of recupera
tion has been rather slow—indeed, slower than anywhere
else in the world; but the bottom of the downward move
ment was reached, it would seem, in i9°9j an< ^ n ow there
is jubilation once more in the columns of the Government
Press. The cotton crop of 1910-11 has been an excellent
one, the cotton prices are ruling higher than ever, and
the fellah Arabic for ‘peasant’. It was used by British officials to refer to agricultural workers or to members of a social class employed primarily in agricultural labour. (so says the “ Egyptian Gazette ”) is hoarding up
gold to an unprecedented extent. This means that the
Government revenue will also rise. The fellah Arabic for ‘peasant’. It was used by British officials to refer to agricultural workers or to members of a social class employed primarily in agricultural labour. cannot eat
the cotton which he grows on his field. He has to sell it,
and by selling it he puts into motion the entire commercial
machinery of the country, which yields as a by-product grist
to the Government mill. The railways are working, and
the receipts of the railway department grow. Ships bring
foreign produce, including food, which the fellah Arabic for ‘peasant’. It was used by British officials to refer to agricultural workers or to members of a social class employed primarily in agricultural labour. has to
buy, and the customs department makes a roaring trade
by charging every article eight per cent, ad valorem, with
the exception of coal and a few other commodities which
pay only four per cent. At the same time, hoarding or no
hoarding, the fellah Arabic for ‘peasant’. It was used by British officials to refer to agricultural workers or to members of a social class employed primarily in agricultural labour. has to meet the demands of the tax-
gatherer, who is also the collector of interest for Sir Ernest
Cassel’s Agricultural Bank, and is carefully watching the
moment when the fellah Arabic for ‘peasant’. It was used by British officials to refer to agricultural workers or to members of a social class employed primarily in agricultural labour. gets his cash. Thus the Govern
ment will greatly benefit by the economic recuperation of
the country. But a short time ago its financial position
was so bad that it was ready to barter away a considerable
portion of the national revenue from the Suez Canal for the
sake of a paltry advance of £4,000,000; and when the
scheme lamentably broke down, the Financial Adviser, m
his Budget Note, submitted just before Christmas, could not
refrain from expressing his despair at the fact that the
rejection of the Suez Canal scheme had thrown the Govern
ment back on its own resources.” Now these resources will
improve, and the Government will have no need to revert
to the Moukabala methods of Ismail Pasha’s finance.
Yet consider how insecure all this prosperity and improve
ment is. It is all based on one factor—the cotton crop.
Few people realise what this means. Out of a total export
of ££28,944,000 in 1910 no less than 91.2 per cent. (££26.4
millions) were made up of cotton, including seed. Compar
ing this with the figures for previous years we find the
following movement in Egyptian total and cotton exports :
Years.
1888-90
1891-93
1894-96
1897-99
1900-02
1903-05
1906-08
1909
Total Export.
Export of Cotton.
£E
£E
I 3*5 0 7» 000
9,063,000
15,707,000
... 10,102,000
14,875,000
... 10,592,000
... 15,706,000
11,102,000
i9>959> 000
14,857,000
23,605,000
... 18,472,000
... 28,929,000
23,466,000
... 26,076,000
... 21,478,000
Per cent
67.1
61.1
71.2
70.6
74.8
76.7
81.1
82.3
The table shows in the clearest manner possible to what
an extent cotton has encroached, during the last twenty-
three years, upon all other articles of export. Moreover,
the figures for cotton in the above do not include those for
cotton seed, the exported value of which amounted in 1908
to ££2,471,000, and in 1909 to £E 2 , 433 > 000 - Adding these
values to the cotton exports as quoted above, we find the
per cent, share of the latter in the total exports to be 91*7 in
1909, and 91.2 in 1910. What should we think of the “pro
sperity” of England if over 90 per cent, of the value of her
exports were composed, say, of coal ?
The unreal value of such a prosperity is obvious a priori,
and it has been made manifest recently on several occa
sions. In 1909 something like thirty per cent, of the crop
was destroyed, it is said, by the worm, and as a result we
know that the Agricultural Bank had to proceed against
no fewer than 40,000 defaulters, of whom the great majority
owed sums amounting to less than £50. The shortage in
1908 for the same or similar reasons amounted to 100,000,000
pounds, and according to the estimates of Ismail Abaza
Pasha An Ottoman title used after the names of certain provincial governors, high-ranking officials and military commanders. the country must have lost in that and the following
year no less than £8,000,000. A similar affliction befell the
country in 1904, and the peasant and farmer class lost quite
£2,000,000 on the Government’s own showing. Tnese are
quite elementary facts, but their significance is enhanced
by the circumstance that Egypt, having all its domestic
industries crushed by direct and indirect legislative and
administrative action, is more than any other country in the
world dependent for its existence upon its export trade.
It produces none of the innumerable manufactured and
semi-manufactured articles which are required for the com
mon use of the people, and even the bulk of its food-stuffs
is imported from abroad. The loss of its cotton crop is,
therefore, a loss of everything by which the masses of the
oeople live, and leads to wholesale starvation and heavy
indebtedness at the hands of village usurers. If, then, for a
year or two no further accident happens, and the cotton
crop is good, the peasant at best can only retrieve but in
no wise improve his former position, and he remains as
ooor as he ever was before.
Again, it is necessary to note that though the value of
the cotton exports is constantly increasing, the production of
cotton does not by any means keep pace with it, or, we
should rather say, is not responsible for it. It is now an
established fact, however much official optimists may try to
confuse it, that the yield of cotton per acre is steadily de
creasing and has, even on such rationally-managed estates
as those of the State Domains, fallen by 50 per cent, since
the middle of the ’nineties. If, nevertheless, the aggregate
production of cotton keeps on steadily expanding, it is
solely due to the activity of the Irrigation Department,
which brings every year fresh areas under cultivation. This
explains the frantic efforts of the Egyptian Government in
extending the net of irrigation works, for if no fresh lands
could be reclaimed from the desert, the diminishing returns
per acre would have long ago revealed themselves in the
shrinkage of the aggregate cotton production. But even as
it is, the quantity of cotton exported since the three years
1888-1890 has only increased from 3.0 million to 6.9 million
kantars, that is, by a little over 100 per cent., whereas its
value has increased from ££9.0 million to ££26.0 million,
that is, by nearly 200 per cent. It is clear that the prosperous
condition of the cotton trade is largely due to the rise of
prices. Indeed, we know that between the triennial period
just mentioned and the present day the price of cotton per
kantar has increased from ££2.95 to something like£E4.oo.
But are these inflated prices stable, and are they good m
themselves? People are still at a loss to account for the
causes of the grave crisis which broke out in Egypt in
1907; yet they are lying, so to say, on the surface: between
July, 1907, and January, 1908, the average price of cotton
fell by 25 per cent., and the cotton grower lost heavily.
Moreover, as the price and rent of the land (the former
being but the capitalised value of the latter) are determined
by the value of its product, the fall in the value of cotton
led to a collapse of prices on the land market, and a general
financial collapse set in. In fact, as a writer The lowest of the four classes into which East India Company civil servants were divided. A Writer’s duties originally consisted mostly of copying documents and book-keeping. in the
“ Siecle ” recently pointed out, the high prices of cotton are
leading everywhere to a rise of rents, which tells disastrously
on the small peasant, and by enhancing the speculative
value of the land itself, prevents its subdivision and en
courages its concentration. And the ^ writer The lowest of the four classes into which East India Company civil servants were divided. A Writer’s duties originally consisted mostly of copying documents and book-keeping. draws attention
to the fact that whereas in France and in the United States
the number of people living directly by agriculture forms
47.4 and 35.7 per cent, respectively of the total population,
yet in Egypt, that classical land of agriculture, it does
not exceed 20 per cent. These facts may perhaps temper
the joy of the favourite Occupation organ, the “Egyptian
Gazette,” which has discovered a great consolation in the
fact that in the course of the last ten years the price of
agricultural land in Egypt has increased from £50 to £110
per acre, and that in the three last months of 1910 no fewer
than 11,000 acres exchanged hands.
On the whole, and speaking without bias, we are unable
to share the optimism with which the economic prospects of
the new year are viewed in Egypt. No doubt the ^ock
Exchange will do well by speculations in cotton and m land;
the large proprietor, the banks, and the revenue depart
ments of the Government will also have cause to rub their
hands with satisfaction. The country as a whole, however,
will be as sick as ever, and the peasant as poor and wretched
as we have known him for years. DELTA.