Ext 6116/46(S) 'Secret Weekly Political Intelligence Summaries, nos 356-416, August 1946-November 1947' [‎128r] (257/978)

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Weekly Political Intelligence Summary
No. 407
Foreign Office, Copy
(Research Department),
3rd September, 1947.
Contents
The passages side-lined in black are GUARD
Page
Europe—
Germany ... ... ... ... ... 1
Austria ... ... ... ... ... 3
Czechoslovakia ... ... ... ... 3
Poland ... ... ... ... ... 4
Soviet Union ... ... ... ... 5
Scandinavia ... ... ... ... 7
The Low Countries ... ... ... 8
France ... ... ... ... ... 9
Switzerland ... ... ... ... 11
Spain ... ... ... ... ... H
Page
Europe (contd .)—
Italy
12
The Vatican
13
South-Eastern Europe ...
13
Middle East ...
18
Far East
• • •
22
The Canberra Conference ...
24
United States
24
Latin America
25
United Nations
...
27
EUROPE
GERMANY
On the 29th August there was published
in Berlin the Anglo-U.S. plan for the level-
of-industry in the joint Zones. This plan
may prove the most important statement
of intentions relating to Germany since
the Potsdam Conference in 1945. It pro
vides that within the Anglo-U.S. Zones
production per head of population will be
about 75 per cent, of the level in 1936, a
year characterised by neither boom nor
slump but one in which a considerable pro
portion of output was devoted to arma
ments. The absolute level of industry in
the two Zones is set at about the same level
as 1936, but the population of the area in
1952, at 42-44 millions, will probably be
some 8-10 millions higher than in 1936.
The new plan represents an increase of
something over one-third on the Quadri
partite plan of March 1946. The greatest
increases are in steel (135 per cent,
increase), machine-tools (224 per cent,
increase), copper consumption (169 per
cent, increase) and passenger cars (300 per
cent, increase). The new level for steel
production {not capacity) is set at
10,700,000 tons, corresponding to what
would be 11,500,000 for the whole of
Germany. This represents 72 per cent, of
1936 production, and 56 per cent, of
existing capacity. Heavy machinery pro
duction is set at a value of RM.500,000,000,
about 80 per cent, of 1936, and light
machinery at RM.916,000,000, about
119 per cent, of 1936. {Note: all these
future values are at 1936 prices.) Fine
mechanics and optics, which are scheduled
to play an important part in Germany’s
foreign trade, will provide a value of
RM.249,000,000, which is no less than
138 per cent, of the 1936 level. Electrical
equipment must increase even more, and
with a value of RM. 1,237,000,000 yearly
will reach 149 per cent, of the 1936 level.
The chemical industry, with a yearly out
put of RM.2,271,000,000, will be about
98 per cent, of the 1936 level. The produc
tion of aluminium, beryllium, vanadium