File 705/1916 Pt 1 'Arab revolt: reports' [‎319r] (185/494)

I
A perusal of the accompanying Report will show that the Sherif seems
on the verge of action and that Idris is loyal, from which it may be inferred
that the Arab movement is progressing better than circumstances would
lead us to expect. If we look at the situation from an Arab point of view
this will be apparent.
An Arab sees (1) that we have no decided political policy as such
towards Arabs in Mesopotamia ; (2) that small forces of Turks can hang
about unmolested within a few miles of Aden, and can quell Arab revolts
taking place in their area ; (3) that a large area of the Egyptian territory is
still occupied by the Turks, who can occasionally capture small bodies of
British troops, while we can only “ drive out ” small bodies of Turkish
troops who return when we have gone.
The Sherif who has hitherto regarded us as an unfailing source of
bakhshish and rifles, has probably committed himself further than he
intended in his negotiations, and now owing to the Turks finding him out,
has to rise whether he will or no. If the Sherif does rise, it will not only
redound to our further discredit, but, if we allow him to be smashed up by
the Turks at leisure as was the Sultan of Lahej, will naturally increase our
disc omfort.
When the Turks have dealt a blow at the Grand Duke in the Caucasus
they will probably despatch a couple of divisions to the Hejaz and make
short work of the Sherif. This would mean henceforth a Turkish nominee
as Sherif and the final squashing of any hopes of a weakened Turkey or
of a non-Ottoman Caliphate, and would prepare the way for a real pan-
Islamic rising. I am of opinion that if a rising takes place in Hejaz, which
the enemy is given leisure to quell in Turco-Teutonic style, the middle
East will become a source of greater danger than ever it was before, and a
serious drag on operations in the West. The Lahej episode will be repeated
on a grand scale.
It is further to be observed that the extermination of the Syrian Christians
has begun, as I anticipated in my report to the War Council in December.
The form it is taking is one I had not foreseen, viz., artificial famine in
place of massacre. Recourse to this means of destruction appears to
indicate that the Germans fear the odium of massacre, and that the Turks
have not yet got complete control of the minds of the Syrian Moslem
masses.
s 309—1 30—6/1916