Coll 17/10(4) 'Internal: political situation; relations with HMG' [‎403r] (805/1031)

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11. On the 28tih October Italy attacked Greece. By the end of November
it was clear not only that Italy had suffered a serious military set-back, but that
the German diplomatic efforts in the Balkans, which had been watched with
anxious interest, had also failed. General Wavells offensive began on the
9th December and the next two months were marked by the crescendo of victories
n Africa. Yet eccentric behaviour continued and the political scene in Iraq
^appeared on the surface even more stormy tlhan before. The reasons for this can
best be studied under the next main heading, together with the reasons for the
survival of the Cabinet until the last day of January 1941.
(C)
12. The Cabinet, as I have said, ought by all the rules to have died of its
own inherent weakness last September or earlier. On the 27th September the
Regent returned from the north to the capital determined to get rid of the Prime
Minister as soon as possible. The displeasure of His Majesty's Government with
the un-ally-like conduct of Iraq can be said to have come to a head on the
26th November, when you informed Rashid Ali that they had lost all confidence
in any Cabinet under his leadership, an intimation understood to mean that
Rashid Ali must go. Soon after, the Regent told the Cabinet openly that he
wished them to resign, but without result. The survival of Rashid Ali as Prime
Minister till the 31st January, 1941, must be explained in terms of the characters
of the principal persons concerned, beginning with himself.
13. Rashid Ali was once described to me by the present French Minister
very aptly as un fauve. In times of stress there comes into his eyes a look that
is familiar to those of us who have had to deal with untutored tribesmen who
have never seen a town or had contact with civilised humanity, a look of combined
fear, cunning and savagery. This former professor of the Law School, member
of the Court of Appeal and Minister of State and Prime Minister of many years’
experience would make an interesting subject for the study of the influence of
environment in childhood on the character of the adult. As a Minister he has
frequently shown himself obstinate and incredibly reckless of consequences, the
kind of man who, as the Persian saying goes, would set fire to the bazaars in
order to steal a handkerchief under cover of the smoke. He is vain and susceptible j
to flattery.
From the end of November onwards the Prime Minister was like a tiger
at bay, with fangs bared and claws unsheathed, determined to do anything rather
than resign. He sought to support his position by whipping-up nationalist
indignation against foreign interference, by having round-robins of support
prepared in the streets and coffee-shops, by calling the military to arms or by
begging the Italian Legation for Axis support; indeed, by any method except
the proper one of appealing to Parliament. For many weeks his principal
colleagues were morally stopped from withdrawing their support owing to the
fact that they had supported him in, or even urged him to, the policy which
had got him into trouble (see below); but, finally, a point was reached beyond
which they were not prepared to go. Even after they had withdrawn (the
26th January, 1941), he defied constitutional precedent by refusing to resign and
trying to form a new Cabinet without a renewed mandate from the Regent;
he used military pressure to try to coerce the Regent into dissolving Parliament;
even after the departure of the Regent to Diwaniya Rashid Ali seems to have
considered the possibility of setting up a military dictatorship. Finally, he only
capitulated in the face of threats from two of his four new blackleg Ministers
to resign without him, and of news from Diwaniya that the army there and the
Shia tribes were solid behind the Regent.
The danger of the situation was thus due almost entirely to the reckless
character of the Prime Minister and his determination to stay in office whatever
the cost. In the country at large the factors making for an improvement in a
sense favourable to Great Britain were steadily at work, though obscured by the
storm in the capital.
14. For the last two years the most important personage in the Iraqi
political scene has undoubtedly been Taha-al-Hashimi. If I am about to give
him a bad name it is not for the purpose of hanging him without further
trial; but it is only in the light of his past that it is possible to form an idea of
what he is likely to do, and, indeed, of what can be reasonably expected of him
in the future.
[16—32] b 2