Coll 6/16 'Future of: Royal Family. Probable happenings on the death of Ibn Saud.' [‎196v] (393/440)

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there is little chance of money from Europe or of the kind of positive support
from Great Britain for which he begged in June—no British bank, no air forces
no backing in his latent struggle with the Hashimites. Over all lies the shadow
of a pilgrimage much smaller than that of last year, and worse times to come m
consequence.
6. It cannot be wondered at that some observers expect the King to seek
salvation in one or both of two things, adventure over the border, or an agree- Ip
ment with the Soviets, He has engaged in military preparations, as he is always
doing. The tribes, it is said, have been encouraged to hope, or threatened with
the necessity of preparing for Jihad. For a time it was thought, that the
objective was the Yemen, but since my return it has been announced that the
King has composed his difference with the Imam in a spirit of piety and love of
peace jn Arabia. The observers whom I have just mentioned are all the more
disposed to think that he is preparing an onslaught on Transjordan Used in three contexts: the geographical region to the east of the River Jordan (literally ‘across the River Jordan’); a British protectorate (1921-46); an independent political entity (1946-49) now known as Jordan , with the
object of gratifying his mingled hatred and fear of the Amir Abdullah and
gaining access, perhaps, to richer lands than his own. I cannot myself believe
that he would be so foolish as to engage openly in an enterprise which would
bring him into direct conflict with His Majesty’s Government, but the possibility
cannot be dismissed in the case of a man, strong-willed and ambitious, who is
already in hard straits and may be desperate in a few months. There is the
alternative possibility of the same object being pursued less openly by the
promotion of authorised raids.
7. Assuming for the sake of hypothesis that Ibn Baud has some such object
in view, three questions, among many others, call for special consideration :
What financial resources could he employ for the purposes of his adventure ?;
What is the extent of the reported military preparations! On what outside
assistance or sympathy could he rely, from the Soviets or otherwise? I will
glance at these in order.
8. No one knows what reserve the King has at Riadh, despite the
impoverishment of the jcountry. and the Hejazi Treasury. It has been suggested
that he has been collecting treasure there, perhaps not gold or not all gold, but
in other forms, riyals or jewellery. War taxes are said to have been levied
on the Hejazi tribes and on the Nejdi townsfolk, 10 riyals a head, it is said, from
the tribesmen, 400,000 riyals from those in the area round Taif, and further
sums from those in the north. According to one account, the latter represented
to the Amir Feisal their miserable poverty and offered men with riding camels
instead of cash, an offer which the Amir undertook to refer to the King, but
which the latter was thought unlikely to accept owing to his lack of confidence
in the Hejazi tribesmen. Another tale is that the merchants of Anaiza and
Buraida are owed £60,000 and have little chance of payment, though eight of
them made their way to Mecca to ventilate their grievance, despite the efforts of
the Governor of Medina to prevent them from getting further than that place. I
cannot pronounce on the probability or otherwise of the King having collected
any substantial liqui(Lreserve at Riadh by the alleged exactions and other means,
but Mr. Hope Gill, wno has followed developments during my absence, especially
Sheikh Abdullah Suleiman’s financial policy, believes in it.
9. As regards the extent of the King’s military preparations, I can again
rely only on distorted rumours and a few items of fact. He has, of course, his
garrisons on the frontier and in certain places not far from it, and he could
obtain men from Nejd for a definite enterprise promising warfare and loot. Such
troops as there were in Jedda would appear to have been moved to Mecca almost
in their entirety. I see in a report from the Political Agent A mid-ranking political representative (equivalent to a Consul) from the diplomatic corps of the Government of India or one of its subordinate provincial governments, in charge of a Political Agency. at Bahrein, dated
the 23rd Novenlber, that an informant newly arrived from the mainland had noted
an unusual withdrawal of horsemen towards Nejd, and supposed that they might
be intended for an attack on the Yemen. I quote with great reserve a report
which has reached me here; that the Polish engineer employed in the Government
workshop at Mecca has been sent to recruit airmen in Poland. A good deal has
been spent during the last year or more on military supplies. It is now said that
24.000 rifles have been repaired in the Mecca workshops, that there were recently
4.000 in hand which the mechanics were being pressed to repair without delay,
and that further rifles were expected to be brought from the interior for the same
purpose. It is also said that the Soviet representative has been offering rifles,
with 1,200 cartridges each, at £2 10s. per rifle, c.i.f. Whether this be true or
not, my informant, the Indian vice-consul, says that a friend of his who went