'File 73/7 I (D 19) Status of Kuwait & Baghdad Railway, and Anglo-Turkish negotiations 1911' [‎54r] (122/631)

i'ear&aga, when I was in Persia, I we 11 remem
ber that the topic upon which Persian states
men seehied most foivcl of oonver.uu p ' with in?
was whether Persia'oaglit "or oo^ht'ivt to join
the Triple Alliance. JSoa^'of thoin seernecj to
be in the 1 iea^fc aware of the hummr'ot the
suggestion. Turkey stands, of course'; in ' a
wholly diliereht position; but the mental ten-
idenby towards High Politics is seavcpliy iess
dange'rous in her case than in the case of Persia.
•As to the cOmihercial side of the qustion
Mr. Lynch writes;--
Nobody would, 1 suppose, contend that a rail
way of this kiii'l, iinanced almost entirely by the
capital of Europe, and controlled- by Euroneans,
was iv matter of purely domestic concern to
Turkey. Bat the facts that it is soughtifco find
fresh revenues for its construction in lhe shape
of iurther increases of the Customs duties, and
that these duties arc tlxed by international
agreement, entitle other countries trading with
Turkey to havo a voice in the future of the line
Of these countries, Gireat Britain is the one
whose trade is by far the largest, and which,
therelore, stands to lose most by any re
striction, .such as- increased duties, which
may be placed upon tha.vohune of this, trade
It is at this point that we : appro^h the com
mercial question nnd it requires much more care
ful attention than it has hitherto -received.
What will be the commercial value of the rail
way?. I agree with Jleri von G winner that the
fear of an inlux of German goods into Asiatic
Turkey and Pers a coming by railway across
Europe, and favoured by diiferential rates
during their passage through Anatolia Peninsula that forms most of modern-day Turkey. , is a
pure ligment of the imagination, Huch goods
are conveyed at pr . sent by sea to Haidar Pa^ha,
the terminus of the Anatolian, Uail way opposite
,0oiu tantinople. It is scarcely conceivable that
the Baghd id railway wiU not be hnke I by a
branch line with the sea at or in the neighbour
hood of the port of Alex.au Ireita. Goo Is for
the rail way from the great industrial .centres of
Europe will th n be conveyed to sea 'ay Alexaa-
dretta. The danger of dnfereutial treatment,,
whether in rates or by other advantages,
commences, therefore, at Alexandretta. 1 can-
n ; t see how . this danger can effectively be
ayerted unless Great Britain has at least an
equal voice in the management of the- line with
the representatives of Germany and Austria We
must remember that from Baghdad a branch of
■the railway is -to be taken to the Persian froa?
tier at Khaaakin in the direction of Ivirmanshah
Now the Baghdad-Kirmanshah trade route i^
one that, has been .developed entirely by Eng
lishmen, and over which British goods to the
value of over a million sterling arc conveyed
every,year. This hgure .compares \\ith under
£1,00;),000 as t'he value of the goods sent by.all
other European countries, including Germany.
Should the rail,way be built, if did' rential
rates were imposed, even . on the Baghdad-
Khanakin section alone,, all this trade would
eithev rind the door slammed in its face or
would be placed at a disadvantage with Ger-
maa trade. Commercially, this.seem* to. me a
•much-.-fmore , important matter thai) the
*oi:- il^^reafc^jrntam- j^ '.^hV'
the railway between Baghdad
W) i jna
sugge._
section o
and the Persian® <
It is, indeed difficult to perceive what pos
sible object can be served, under existing
economical coAjXftlFi^e frbin Baghdad
to the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. , ^e^tegicallyji;,. could be
of little valug tQ.Turl^y.ias hentKoo^faiwould
continue to be conveyed bv sleamer down the
Tigris As a means €>f» Shrough passenger
or mail communication between India and the
British Isles, it could scarcely compete with
the existing route- mVi'-tflfti'^uezr Canal ■ As Sir
Thomas Sutherland has pointed ouL it would
only hefed a 'slfghii "'acceleration of 'the'' present
steamer service .toy-establiisk., equal conditions
with the proposed railway in point of view of
time. As regards comfort, the advantages jare
all in favourof the spa route, in spite of the
assurance given us by Herr von JGwinner
that the railway journey is cspable of being
made quite comfortable, by placing a German
ice machine in every ear*, and" a little liquid
air. As for goods; the^cost of transport would
be immeasurably; heightened if we add, as we
mustrto the freight the additional e.ost of the
article to the consumer due to the' increase 1 'of
(Justpiius duties, tor the purpose of firraisieiug the
line. Let me give an illustration. A to.ni of
cotton ^ goods is worth, on the average,
£100. I he duties are levied ad valorem and
the suggested increase of 4 per cent, i would
therefore work out at 80s. per. ton. The pre
sent river freight on such goods from 3 us rah,
near "the head of the Persian Ghlf, to Baghdad
is ''Jos: a ton. Even if the raihv'ay were ' : tb
carry therp for nothing, there would, therefore;
beanincrpase i-a their cost to-the consumer ia
Baghdad of 55s. a ton !
V
If wb examine the commercial aspect of the
railway from 1 the point of vi4w of Turkey,-'
1 think we must come to the conclusion that
little thought has been bestowed upon it;'
It is possible, but, not ■.certain.; jthat the
districts about Mosul inay benefit by the
railway;in their export trade.* But the natural
outlet 4pr the. districts about the Euphrates
and the Tigris are those waterways themselves.
But ai'e 1 ' c'apable of almost indefinite im-
provemeat;- k-nd -that at J a' cost which sinks into
dnsigoificance when compared with the railway.
'The pvp^eflt average cost of river transport
i between Baghdad and Biisi;ahis 12<j. a ton on
| ordinary goods, and 10^ a ton or less on grain.
: Only a rail way heavily subsidised at the 'cost
of the taxpayer could compete with rates such
as these. It is true that there might be some
ad vantage'in the rates of freight from Alexan-
dretta to the European ports as compared with
those ruling at Busrah. . Taking the United
'Kingdom, and assuaiiag that the. sea freight
from AlexaadrettirT\'Oiild be th-e sambas the
average present rate at Constantinople, we get a
rate of 17s. 6/. a ton. This compares with the
'averageayxisting rate Ijet^vedh Busfali aadt^xe
1 United itingdon^ of a A t"oil. Tlj^ atlyj^t^e
in favour of Alexandretta is, of course, ac
counted for to some .ftxbMit by the fact that
cargo consigned from tiiat pgrjf^would escape
the Sue^ Qanal dues, which are equivalent, for
the purpose of this calculation, to about 5s. a
ton. But this is a't/fvlal mSstter wlierf'compared
to the proposed^ increase in the t Customs
duties i and if trapl were ...increased?' by the,,
aeverop'mciff; *of the great waterways, the
ocean rate between Busrah and the United
Kingdom would tend to approximate to the
Bombay rate, which is normally about-JO.s. a ton.
The conelusion is that there would be very UtSle
saved in cost of transport ftom Alexandretta as
-compared with transoort from the oorts at the
head of the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. .
i hesc facts, which, at the risk of becoming
tedious, I have thought it necessary to brin" -
Oil'. make it plain thatfurthercareful considera
tion is necessary if the Baghdad scheme is to be
1 brought into consonance with the requirements
[ of Turkey and with the interest-? of her follows
| among the nations,'. Whether it is destined to
be so treated is quite another matter. Its
promoters are quite entitled to raise the note
of tjriumph which is'characteristic of their
recent writings. Indeed, their course has, up
to now, been marked by a series of diplomatic
Successes. They have already obtained -an
equivalent lor that increase in the Customs
duties which was necessary to finance the
Taurus sections* of-tlfcih project. The duties
were raised with the consen-t ,of the Western
Powers, on the ground,, that an exhausted
Treasury could not otherwise supply the funds
required tor the.administration of Ivlacedonia.
• A- short time differ wards, a sum of several
hundred thousand pounds' a? year was made
availablejlaiiviidfi-om the - ^HHi-dest—revenues
in Turkey, and was earmarked for the- railway r"
But : the Mncedohfah ■ transaction lias still
some rough-adges abo-nt 4t-, -ftftd- dHHcult
to believe that an enterprise of this nature can
be carried thpoug^ by sheet- forcq. The ideaf
solution woubl be a settlement bringing -closer'
together Germany, England, and France, based
on a frank recognition of their respective"
interests, and above all, upon consideration for
the future welfare.of Turkey -as a strong but
peace-loving and progressive state.
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