مجموعة ١٠/١٧(١) "شؤون داخلية: الوضع السياسي؛ العلاقات مع الحكومة البريطانية" [و‎‎٤‎٣‎٣] (٩٨٢/٨٧٠)

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THIS DOCUMENT IS THE PROPERTY OF HIS BRITANNIC MAJESTY’S GOVERNMENT
? T7nr V
EASTERN (Iraq).
CONFIDENTIAL.
[E 1123/105/93]
Sir F. Humphrys to Sir John Sim on.—(Received February 27.)
(No. 114.)
SR, Bagdad. February 16. 1933.
WITH reference to my telegram No. 21 of the ilth February, I have the
honour to offer the following observations on the general election which concluded
on the 8 th February with the final polling for Deputies in all constituencies.
2 . The progress of the somewhat lengthy procedure of first and second
degree elections, which has to be carried out under the existing law, aroused
remarkably little public interest. The press confined itself in the main to
expressing pious hopes that able and honest men would be returned, and the
political parties showed little activity. The general secretary of the Nationalist
party, Jafar Chalabi-abu-Timman. repeating his tactics at the last election in
1930, made an abortive attempt to persuade the Executive Committee of the party
to declare a boycott of the elections, but this was the only ripple which disturbed
the placid surface of the electoral waters. The party of National Brotherhood,
of which Yasin Pasha is the leading figure, made no pronouncement of policy,
and Nuri Pasha's Ahd party maintained a similarly cryptic silence.
3. In the final polling the candidates nominated by the Government were
everywhere successful, but this does not necessarily mean that the new Chamber
will give constant support to the present Cabinet. It seems that the men now
elected have all been carefully chosen by the King, and it is as King’s men and
not party men that they have secured their seats. I anticipate, therefore, that the
new Chamber will only support the present Cabinet for so long as they continue
to enjoy the King's favour and that, when this favour is withdrawn, the Deputies
will readily give their support to another Cabinet of the King’s choice.
4. Yasin Pasha and a number of his friends, such as Ali Jaudat, Jamil
Madfai and Muhammad Zaki. have been returned and it seems clear that he could
both form a Cabinet and find a majority in the Chamber, if the King should call
upon him to do so. The fact that the election was not conducted on the usual
party lines is probably explained by the King's desire to have a so-called National
Parliament, and by the promises which he lavishly gave for the nomination of the
principal leaders and publicists of the various political parties. The net result
is that the King has secured the election of a Parliament on which he can ring
any Cabinet changes he pleases without a dissolution or inconvenience to himself.
5. I do not think, however, that His Majesty intends at present to dismiss
Naji Beg Shauket and his colleagues, though it is impossible to be certain that
events may not occur to change his mind. King Feisal may still have leanings
towards Yasin Pasha as a Prime Minister, but I do not think that His Majesty
would invite him to form a Cabinet, if he felt that this was likely to jeopardise
his relations with His Majesty’s Government. Nor do I believe that Yasin Pasha
would accept the premiership unless he was confident of obtaining a sufficiently
free hand to carry out the main principles of his own programme, which have
hitherto aimed at a drastic revision of the Anglo-Iraqi Treaty of 1930.
6 . Thirty-two of the Deputies in the last Chamber have been re-elected, but
although Nuri Pasha’s newspaper claims that this is a mark of popular approval
of the work of Nuri Pasha’s Cabinet, I do not myself think that these Deputies
have this time returned as Nuri’s supporters. Of his Cabinet, only one has been
re-elected, Jamal Baban, the Minister for Justice, with whom he quarrelled last
year over the affair of the anonymous letters.
Three members of the Executive Committee of the Nationalist party have
been elected, including Abdul Ghafur-al-Badri, the editor of the Istiqlai news
paper; the previous knowledge of their nomination was no doubt the reason for
the refusal to boycott the elections to which I have referred above.
Other Deputies whose election is noteworthy are Hamid-al-Wadi, brother
of the present Minister of Justice, and until recently aide-de-camp to the Amir
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