أوراق بقلم كرزون بشأن الشرق الأدنى والأوسط [و‎‎١‎٥] (٣٤٨/٢٩)

[This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.]
DEPARTMENTAL FILE.
EASTERN. HASTi-ivm - [March 26.]
’ V ■ - A.'-- T
CONFIDENTIAL. Suction 1.
[46887] No - !•
Memorandum by Earl Curzon.
A Ko'e of Warning about the Middle Eaxt.
I WISH to express to my colleagues certain apprehensions which I cannot help
entertaining about the progress of events in the Near and Middle East. 1 hoy may
turn out to^be quite unfounded; but I think that we should be on our guard against
certain eventualities which, if they occur, will probably come as a great shock to all
those in this and other countries who are preparing for the conclusion and celebration
of a speedy and glorious peace.
I say nothing about the prospect of Germany signing the sort of Peace treaty whicli
it appears will shortly be presented to her. It would, however, he unwise, in my opinion,
to count implicitly upon her acceptance. The weakness of her Government, her
manacing attitude on the Eastern frontier of Germany and in Poland, the growth of
dissensions among the Allies in Paris, may all tempt her to risk lefusal. .
While, however, everyone is discussing the probable or possible attitude of
Germany, no one appears to turn a thought to what may happen in Turkey. Ever
since the conclusion of the armistice, it appears to have been taken for granted that
Turkey, with our fleet at Constantinople, could be compelled to accept whatever terms
we may dictate to her. I pleaded more than once at the time, but without success,
that the terms of the armistice with Turkey should be made much more comprehensive
and severe. They were not made so ; and our position at Constantinople has since
rested more upon the calculating self-interest of the lurks on the one hand, and bluff
on our part on the other, than it has done upon any confession of defeat on the part
of the enemy, or convincing display of power by ourselves.
The city of Constantinople is in a state of very imperfect order, though
disarmament is being slowly pursued. A Government is in power that alternately
turns to the French and ourselves, and endeavours to flatter both into support of
Turkish claims in the near future. Meanwhile, the Committee of Union and Piogrt ss
so far from being dissolved, is everywhere active in the background. It is still the
dominant force in the greater part of the Turkish Empire. Enver is still a national
hero. The forts of the Dardanelles have never been destroyed, only occupied by weatv
Allied detachments. Allied forces are scarcely visible in Constantinople.
Now, tfet us see what is happening in that world which is the political environment
of the Turkish capital. Everywhere are manifest symptoms of Allied weakness or
disunion. The Bolsheviks have just turned the French and Greeks out of the Ukraine,
and very nearly turned them out of Odessa. General Denikin, to whom we have
widely advertised our assistance, is not doing particularly well on the Don and m t ie
Caucasus. It is known that we are going to clear out of the Caucasus as soon as we
can, leaving, I can assure my colleagues, a legacy of certain chaos and bloodshed
behind us. We are already retiring from Transcaspia. Our flag will presently cease
to fly on the Caspian.
If they look to another part of the horizon, the Turks cannot fail to see with a
chuckle of deep satisfaction that there is a serious and widespread revolt against the
British in Egypt, and that the Turkish Hag has actually been raised again in the v alley
of the Nile. ° The fate of Palestine is not yet decided. The French and British are
squabbling over the future of Syria. Indeed, the entire Hite of those regions, v\ hieh on
attempt ought to have been made to settle in the early days of the Conference, is
once more to be postponed until a Commission has been sent out to examine and
report. I need hardly point out what magnificent opportunities tor intrigues this
will present. Meanwhile, the Turks know well that an active controversy is going
on as to whether the Greeks and Italians are to be allowed into Asia Minor, and it so
to wiiat extent, and in what capacity.
The above is the picture upon which the Old Turk, who still hopes to re-estab.ish
the former regime, and the young Turk, who means to cheat us it he can of the spoils
of victory, look out from the crumbling watchtowers of Stambul. Both are piobably
[2863 cc—1]