أوراق بقلم كرزون بشأن الشرق الأدنى والأوسط [و‎‎٣] (٣٤٨/٥)

KKINTED AT YHK FORK ION OFFICK HY C K.
nAiausoN.—17/11/1 '*1.
3
My conclusion is that the time for peace negotiations with
Turkey has not yet come; that our position in Palestine and Meso
potamia must be more firmly assured before we can undertake them
with any prospect of success, and that when they are opened the
overtures should come, not from us, but from the Turk himself. In
dealing with an Oriental people psychology is a more important
guide than is either logic, or policy, or cleverness, or finesse. If we
approach the Turk now, he wdl consider, not whether we are offering
him good or bad terms, nor whether it will be wise for him to close
while he can, but that in coming at all we have admitted that we are
not the victorious, but the beaten, party, or at least the party that
expects to be beaten ; and he will to a certainty connect our action
with what has happened in Russia, and still more in Italy.
As far back as June last the late American Ambassador at
Constantinople told Sir H. Rumbold that “ so long as the I urkish
Government were dominated by the present Grand Vizier and by
Enver, the possibility of making a separate peace with Turkey was
out of the question. Several members of the Turkish Government
were in favour of trying to make a separate peace with the Allies,
but he did not see how Turkey could shake off the Germans in
present circumstances. The only way to checkmate the Germans
would be if the Turks who are in favour of a separate peace could
manage by a successful coup to throw open the Dardanelles to the
Fleets of the Allies.”
That seemed to me to be a very true forecast then, and I
believe it to represent accurately the Turkish position now. Until
our position is a stronger one, not only in the local but in the
continental theatre of war, I seriously doubt the wisdom of
approaching the Turk. When it is stronger in either theatre, or in
both, he will probably approach us. Such pourparlers as have
already taken place, as well as the public utterances of statesmen,
must have convinced him that we are not out for his annihilation,
even if this were not prohibited by the facts and prospects of
the war.
C. of K.
November 16, 1917.