ملف رقم ٤٣٤٥ لسنة ١٩١٢ "السكة الحديدية العابرة لبلاد فارس" [ظ‎‎٤‎١] (٣٣٠/٨٧)

2
A staff of engineers and experts has actually finished its work under supervision of
M. Petchkovsky, chairman of the Rostoff-Vladicaucase Railway and member of the
group. It is our aim, leaving aside all the details and the ca culations, to expose only
the net results of these fore-studies, which, we believe, are able to present the whole
plan under an entirely new light. It is generally considered as an obvious fact that e-
railway line in Persia can be built only under a direct Government guarantee. The;/
aforesaid preliminary studies enable us to state that this poin o new appears not
quite correct when applied to a railway establishing a direct and uninterrupted
overland communication between Europe and India, and to corroborate our statement
by the following data :—
1. Preliminary Forecast.— The length of the railway across Persia will not surpass
1,400 miles, out of which 140 miles have been added in order to avoid the deserts of
Dechet and Lut. The building expenditure is calculated at 18,700,(K)0L, the rolling-
stock included. (The Russian group possesses surveys made m 1900 by Russian
engineers for a large part of the line from the Russian frontier up to iverman.) Inis
preliminary forecast has been made as broadly as possible within reasonable limits.
English experts have expressed the belief that the expenditure would not surpass
15,000,000b The possible receipts of the railway can be obtained from the following
sources
(a.) Passengers and valuable goods going from Europe to India or vice
versa. This paragraph contains also postal communications. Very
valuable goods only (over 400Z. the ton) are taken into consideration,
on a very moderate scale. Through goods from Europe to Persia
are quite left aside . .... _ • •
(£>.) Goods going from Persia to Russia and British Beluchistan or vice
versa
(c) Local passengers and goods
(d.) Revenue from the use in express train of cars belonging to the
Trans-Persian Railway. (The construction of these cars is
included in the afore-mentioned building expenses)
Total
1,422,000
637.000
222.000
154,000
2,435,000
The expenses, the guarding of the railway included, are calculated at .. 1,725,000
The net revenue being, per annum .. .. .. .. .. 709,000
2. Indirect Guarantees. —A source of indirect guarantee can be extracted from the
surplus revenus gained by the Russian and Indian railway nets after the opening of the
direct trans-continental communications. These revenues are valued at 460,000b for the
2,225 miles of Russian railways, which will enter into the through line from Europe to India.
The Russian Government, being opposed to a direct guarantee, which may impose a
certain burden on the Exchequer, has admitted, on the contrary, the possibility of assuring
the interests of the share and bondholders of the new railway out of that sum, which
is an unforeseen, receipt, obtained thanks to the new through traffic. The same
reasoning may be applied to the 1,400 miles (up to Bombay) or miles (up to
Calcutta) in India and British Beluchistan, the whole sum exceeding the 709,000b,
which the Persian line itself will be able to give to satisfy the said interests. There is
no doubt possible that a sum of 1,200,000b per annum would be amply sufficient
for that object, out of which only 500,000b have to be provided in the aforesaid manner
or in any other way, which can be suggested by the future “ societe d’etudes.” There
is no doubt possible as to the probable development of Persia owing to the railway,
which may be combined with useful branch lines. One can also feel secure that, as
every new highway of communication and of civilisation, the Indo-European trunk line
will create an exchange, of people and of goods, which it is impossible to foretell. The
main thing is that, having vast possibilities, the projected railway is based on tangible
realities, whereas many railways in Africa, America, or elsewhere have been built with
only a reasonable hope for a more or less distant future. Though these preliminary
calculations have been made in a prudent manner and are based exclusively on official
statistics and established facts, the Russian group believe that further investigations
must be begun on a large scale by a special company or syndicate (“ societe d*etudes”),
that syndicate will have to prepare the ground in all respects for the railway company,
to obtain the concession from the Persian Government, and to negotiate all necessary
arrangements with the States interested in the through traffic. Russian banks and
railway companies have already subscribed a considerable sum for that object, and we
may safely assume that at the present time we have obtained all that could be done