"الملف 73/7 II (D 22) وضع الكويت - سكة حديد بغداد، والمفاوضات الأنجلو تركية" [و‎‎١‎٩‎١] (٥٤٠/٣٨٧)

A
influence in the Persian Gulf, and to extend control in Arabia, and an increased pow
er of offensive against British interests, including Kuwait and Mohammerah. It
further means the firmer establishment of Grerman, French, and Russian interests,
with a corresponding tendency to intervene, in a region where the outside interests
have hitherto been preponderatingly British, (It is not, of course, suggested that
we can, or ought to try to, keep everyone else out; but to invite them in, and on
such terms, is quite another matter.)
Commercially. —Our interests are twofold. There is the existing trade with
Western Persia via Baghdad and Khanikin, and the trade which is expected to grow
up when Mesopotamia is irrigated and developed. The Persian trade is worth about
2,000,000/. It is difficult to forecast its future, but if the Trans-Persian Railway is
built, and Mohammerah connected with it and with Burujird, the Persian trade
will presumably desert Baghdad altogether. If Persian railways remain in abey
ance, it is not clear that we shall be worse of! than we are at present, so long as the
river between Baghdad and the Gulf is cypen, and Article 24 of the "Cahier des charges'*
operates to prevent differential rates on the Baghdad Railway. Again, the future
local trade of Mesopotamia, being mainly in agricultural products, will probably in
any case flow westwards to Alexandretta.
This view seems to be borne out by the latest figures available for the trade of
Baghdad, 1910, which areas follows:—
I mports to B aghdad.
From— £
United Kingdom.. ., .. .. .. .. 1,317,762
France .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 203,284
Austria-Htingary ». ,. .. .. .. 180,011
Belgium .. ,. .. .. 211,835
Germany .. .. ,. .. .. 53,705
United States of Arr .erics, .. ,. ... .. .. 806
India, China, and Japan .. .. .. .. .. 664,147
E xports prom B aghdad.
To-
United Kingdom..
France ..
Austria-Hungary .. .» .. *
Belgium .. .. _
Germany
United States of America ..
India, China, and Japan
The Bulk of the British and Indian imports seems to be in cotton goods* twist,
and woollens, and that of the exports carpets, wool, opium, and hides.
It is, however, possible that cotton will be grown and pressed in Mesopotamia,
and will find its way into eastern markets, and the mineral resources of the country
(especially oil) may also add to the trade eastwards. But, speaking generally, it
does not seem certain that the volume of trade resulting from the development of
Mesopotamia will necessitate the construction of the Gulf section if India is not to
lose its share, and it is probable that India will retain her share whether it is built
or not.
But, of course, it is not possible to assume that the railway will never be built.
From the difficulty which it is understood that the Germans have had in disposing
of the bonds of the other sections^f the Baghdad Railway, and from their willingness
to part with their rights in the Gulf section, it may, indeed be inferred that they will
be in no hurry to undertake the latter, while the Turks themselves have neither the
money nor the means of obtaining it. The construction will therefore be post
poned, but—as the line is of military and political importance to Turkey—it will
eventually be built. In the interval much may have happened in Mesopotamia,
as the Viceroy has reminded us, and it is not easy to foresee the conditions that will
16
132,131
14,591
3,077
30,441
155,049
87
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